Betting The Favorite
Favorites do win races at about a 33% success rate. Therefore favorites lose 67% of the time. The key is to know when a favorite is vulnerable or not.
The morning line oddsmaker, employed by the track, are sharp horsemen who know the stables well. Add a top 10 jockey / trainer combination accompanied by a horse exiting a key race and you have a deserving favorite.
Below are tips for avoiding a vunerable favourite:
- No Speed
Horses rarely win from the back of the pack. The exception to this rule is “turf routes.”
- First Off A Layoff
A horse coming off a layoff generally needs a race under their belt to get in “race condition” A layoff is defined as 90 days or more. The exception to this rule is the
second-time starter, still a maiden. Maidens typically improve in its second life time start.
- New Distance or Surface
Any horse trying a new distance for the first time is a fade.. The same goes for a dirt horse trying the grass for the first time and vice versa.
4. Trainer with Poor Record
Good trainers win races, bad ones don’t. Enough said.
- Hate To Win
Horse that hasn’t won in its last 10 races. Maidens who have at least six starts and is not dropping in class.
- Multiple Drop in Class
If a horse is dramatically dropping in class. Toss it.
7. Trap Races
Cheap claiming races and non-winners of two lifetime.