Betting The Favorite 101

Betting The Favorite

Favorites do win races at about a 33% success rate. Therefore favorites lose 67% of the time. The key is to know when a favorite is vulnerable or not.

The morning line oddsmaker, employed by the track, are sharp horsemen who know the stables well. Add a top 10 jockey / trainer combination accompanied by a horse exiting a key race and you have a deserving favorite.

Below are tips for avoiding a vunerable favourite:

  1. No Speed

Horses rarely win from the back of the pack. The exception to this rule is “turf routes.”

  1. First Off A Layoff

A horse coming off a layoff generally needs a race under their belt to get in “race condition”  A layoff is defined as 90 days or more. The exception to this rule is the
second-time starter, still a maiden. Maidens typically improve in its second life time start.

  1. New Distance or Surface

Any horse trying a new distance for the first time is a fade.. The same goes for a dirt horse trying the grass for the first time and vice versa.

4. Trainer with Poor Record

Good trainers win races, bad ones don’t. Enough said.

  1. Hate To Win

Horse that hasn’t won in its last 10 races. Maidens who have at least six starts and is not dropping in class.

  1. Multiple Drop in Class

If a horse is dramatically dropping in class. Toss it.

7. Trap Races

Cheap claiming races and non-winners of two lifetime.


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